Episode 96: 2021 Predictions
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*A list of thoughts about the show a day later
One of our main topics was Peloton acquiring Precor. On its face this acquisition makes sense, but why didn’t they buy it with stock instead of cash? Also, is Peloton trying to enter the gym market, or is this just for the manufacturing capabilities? These are questions I think any investor needs to be asking. I’m on the fence on whether Peloton will be a good investment going forward. The community aspect is the key, but they will have to get a lot, and I mean a lot, of things right to reach 100 million digital subscribers. Also, listen to Ryan Reeves discuss them here.
My news story was Intel getting an activist stake from Third Point. There is nothing funnier to me than the “strategic alternatives” line. Not sure why but it always makes me chuckle. In all seriousness, after thinking about it for a while I believe Intel may fall into the “Too Big to Fail” bucket. The powers at be won’t let the U.S. lose with semiconductors, as they are too important geopolitically. This also may be a good thing.
We mentioned the Jack Ma disappearance briefly. Apparently he has been found (?) now and is just “lying low.” While it is entertaining to speculate what happened to him, this is one of many examples of why I can’t get comfortable investing in China unless the CCP miraculously disappears.
We mention Tesla and Bitcoin (of course) and give some takes on why we’d never touch them. This likely has alienated some of our listeners, but I believe wholeheartedly in what we discussed (i.e. that Bitcoin is the purest Ponzi scheme ever invented and that Tesla is the largest single company bubble in history).
Looking back at our predictions for 2020 was painful. Ryan predicted we wouldn’t see a 30% drawdown for a whole decade, and I said that Tesla and Uber would be considerably lower by the end of the year. This is why you don’t make predictions (and why we don’t short).
I can’t remember Ryan’s predictions for 2021 (listen to find out) but I predicted Berkshire Hathaway would outperform FANMAG. I think I still believe this today.
Lastly, our Deep Dives with Ian Gray will be coming back Thursday, which you can also find on YouTube.
Disclosure: The author is not a financial advisor, and may have an interest in the companies discussed.